Washington, D.C. — A new report from Industrious Labs reveals a critical finding as the United States grapples with evolving trade policies and supply chain vulnerabilities: U.S. demand for primary aluminum is expected to increase by as much as 40% by 2035. With recent tariff announcements from the Trump administration, including a 25% tariff on aluminum imports, this surge in demand underscores the urgent need for strategic action to secure a stable and reliable domestic primary aluminum supply.

“The U.S. aluminum industry has faced decades of decline, but these findings make it clear: revitalizing domestic primary aluminum production is essential,” said Annie Sartor, Aluminum Campaign Director at Industrious Labs. “We have a unique opportunity to restore U.S. smelting capacity, create jobs, and rebuild a resilient supply chain that supports critical industries.”

Aluminum plays a crucial role in modern infrastructure, transportation, energy systems, and military applications. However, while demand continues to rise, domestic production has sharply declined. In 2000, the U.S. was the world’s leading producer of primary aluminum, operating 23 smelters. Today, only four remain, and they are collectively running below full capacity.

The new report aggregates data from leading industry sources, including The Aluminum Association, CRU Group, RMI, the International Aluminium Institute, and the International Energy Agency, to forecast aluminum demand growth scenarios. If primary aluminum demand reaches the high-end projection of a 40% increase, the U.S. would need approximately 6.4 million metric tons (Mt) annually — an increase of 1.8 Mt over current demand.

The U.S., already the world's largest net importer of aluminum, relies on imports for 82% of its primary aluminum supply. Canada is the primary supplier, accounting for more than 50% of imports, but global trade dynamics are shifting. With the European Union’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) potentially increasing demand for Canada’s low-carbon aluminum, and additional tariffs affecting supply flows, the U.S. must act now to address future sourcing challenges.

“The aluminum supply chain is facing increasing pressure from geopolitical shifts, trade policies, and market competition,” said Sartor. “The new report from Industrious Labs makes it clear that if the U.S. wants to remain competitive, it must act now to strengthen its domestic aluminum capacity before evolving global dynamics further tighten supply.”

With aluminum demand rising, securing a stable domestic supply is more critical than ever. Restarting curtailed smelters like Century Aluminum’s in Hawesville, Kentucky and Magnitude 7 Metals in Marston, Missouri could restore 0.5 million metric tons of capacity and create 1,000 jobs, while optimizing existing operations would further boost production. Looking ahead, Century Aluminum’s planned smelter — the first in over 45 years — is set to double U.S. primary aluminum capacity, marking a pivotal moment for the industry.

“These projections from Industrious Labs make it clear that aluminum demand will continue to expand, requiring stable and cost-effective energy solutions,” said Sravan Chalasani, Senior Associate at RMI. “Ensuring a reliable clean energy supply is crucial for the aluminum industry's growth.”

With demand on the rise and global competition intensifying, the U.S. aluminum industry stands at a crossroads. The findings of this report highlight the importance of policy support, investment, and industry coordination to revitalize domestic primary aluminum production and ensure long-term supply chain security.

“The decisions made right now will shape the future of aluminum in the U.S. for decades,” said Sartor. “If the U.S. takes bold action, it will be possible to rebuild an industry that stabilizes its domestic supply chain, strengthens industrial resilience, and supports economic growth.”

Click here to read the full report, The Aluminum Rush: Forecast Demand for a Critical Metal.

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About Industrious Labs:

Industrious Labs is focused on transforming heavy industry to better serve people, the economy, and the planet through network and capacity building, research and analysis, and data-driven campaigns.

For additional information or interviews, please contact Marwa Abdelghani at 818-669-3987 or marwa@industriouslabs.org.